Obsidian Brief] What AI, Stablecoins, and Bitcoin Signal About the Future of Money

Hi All,

There are times when the financial system begins to rewrite itself, not through crisis but through quiet architectural changes. This year’s developments in AI, stablecoins, and digital liquidity feel exactly like that. Below is the summary of what I have been observing and learning this year. Ed Yardeni's recent note prompted me to put this together.

Since the summer, I’ve been watching one trend pull closer:
the convergence of AI-native workflows and programmable digital money.
This is no longer a crypto story.
This is an infrastructure story.

Below is a comprehensive map — written for CIOs, CFOs, and senior investment leaders navigating the next decade of capital flows.

1. Bitcoin Has Become Structural, Even If It’s Not Money

For more than a decade, Bitcoin lived in a zone between ideology and macro speculation. What’s changed is not its volatility but its institutional entrenchment.

What the data shows

• Global Bitcoin ETF AUM surpassed $50B in 2025.
• Over $15B in inflows arrived within the first months of U.S. spot ETF approvals.
• Professional allocator exposure climbed from <5% in 2020 to ~20–25% in 2025.
• Bitcoin’s trading volume now routinely exceeds major FX pairs during volatility spikes.

Bitcoin is not becoming transactional money.
But it is becoming macro infrastructure — a cross-border, always-on liquidity pool.

Its role now mirrors a global high-volatility, high-beta alternative asset, more akin to digital gold mixed with tech-like reflexivity.

But the utility layer of the digital economy is being captured elsewhere.

2. Stablecoins: The $150–$200B Market Rewiring Liquidity

Stablecoins are no longer an experiment; they are system plumbing.

Key numbers (2025)

• Market cap: ~$150B and rising.
• Quarterly flows: >$1 trillion across public blockchains.
• On-chain settlement activity now exceeds Visa’s daily volumes on peak days.
• 70–80% of crypto exchange liquidity is stablecoin-settled.
• USDT alone processes ~$40–50B daily.

The GENIUS Act changed the landscape:

• Requires stablecoins to be backed 1:1 by short-dated U.S. Treasuries.
• Regulates reserve transparency, operational resilience, redemption mechanics.
• Effectively turns stablecoins into digital money market funds with instant settlement.

And — crucial for CIO/CFO visibility:

Stablecoins extend the reach of the U.S. dollar into every digital platform, wallet, and AI system without the friction of banking intermediaries.

Bitcoin built belief.
Stablecoins built the rails.

3. AI Agents Will Need Money That Moves at Machine Speed

The part that shifted my own thinking this summer was the realisation that AI is becoming an economic actor — not just a tool.

AI agents:

• execute tasks
• manage workflows
• initiate payments
• rebalance subscriptions
• make procurement decisions
• conduct simulations
• schedule trades
• settle microtransactions

These tasks cannot run on ACH, SWIFT, SEPA or even traditional banking rails.

AI needs money that is:

• programmable
• 24/7
• global
• instantaneous
• low-cost
• machine-readable
• API-first

Stablecoins provide exactly that.

What the research suggests

• McKinsey estimates AI automation could touch $12T in annual financial flows by 2030.
• Autonomous agents will handle 30–50% of workflow-level tasks across finance operations.
• Tokenized cash equivalents (e.g., BlackRock’s BUIDL Fund) could grow to $5T+ by 2030 as corporate treasuries modernize.

This is the real paradigm shift:

AI + stablecoins = programmable liquidity for a machine economy.

Bitcoin is the macro asset.
Stablecoins are the operating system.
AI is the new participant.

4. Tokenization: The Institutional Rail Emerging Underneath

If AI and stablecoins are the software layer, tokenization is the settlement layer.

We are now at the early stage of institutional adoption, but the numbers are material:

Tokenization data points

• Total tokenized funds passed $2 billion AUM in early 2025.
• JP Morgan’s Onyx network has processed over $1 trillion in tokenized settlements.
• Franklin Templeton, Hamilton Lane, KKR, and BlackRock have launched tokenized classes of funds.
• Tokenized Treasuries are yielding 4–5% with real-time settlement, now used by corporates and fintechs.

The value proposition is straightforward for CFOs:

• intraday liquidity
• atomic settlement
• reduced counterparty risk
• treasury consolidation
• simplified FX for global operations
• real-time reporting

This is not about crypto.
This is about upgrading market infrastructure with exponential efficiency.

5. The Next Monetary Architecture Is Already Forming

Zooming out, these threads form a coherent picture:

Money is shifting from a banking product
→ to a software layer
→ to an AI-native economic protocol.

The 2030s will likely bring:

AI-triggered payments

Automated contract execution, supply chain payments, asset management fees, insurance payouts.

On-chain collateral markets

Tokenized treasuries, corporate cash management, repo markets.

Autonomous treasury operations

AI agents handling cash sweeps, liquidity buffers, risk flags, FX balancing.

Global settlement convergence

Stablecoins, bank tokens, and tokenized assets interacting seamlessly.

Portfolio automation

Real-time exposures, ESG & climate data feeds, intraday reporting, AI-driven reallocation.

New yield sources

Tokenized T-bills, on-chain liquidity facilities, programmable money market instruments.

This is an infrastructure shift on par with the introduction of the internet — but compressed into a decade.

6. What CIOs and CFOs Should Be Preparing For

Questions that belong in investment committees and operating committees now:

Operational

• Is treasury prepared for instantaneous global settlement?
• What percentage of processes can become API-driven?
• Which systems are ready to interface with AI agents?

Risk & Governance

• What frameworks do we need for autonomous execution?
• How do we control for AI-initiated payments and transactions?
• What does audit look like in near-real-time settlement systems?

Investment & Strategy

• How do tokenized funds alter liquidity management?
• Where does stablecoin yield sit in a multi-asset portfolio?
• What allocation frameworks emerge when money becomes programmable?

Competitive Positioning

• Which firms integrate AI-native money flows first?
• What new financial products become possible with instant settlement?
• Where will today’s friction turn into tomorrow’s alpha?

The firms that prepare now will not just adapt — they will set the new standards.

Reflection Question for Obsdian Odyssey Community & Senior Leaders

What would your organisation look like if every transaction — human or AI-initiated — settled instantly, globally, and programmatically?

Where would that create efficiency?
Where would it create risk?
And where would it create a competitive moat?

🗺️ Obsidian Odyssey Resource Intelligence Map (CIO & CFO Friends Edition)

When friends ask me where I stay informed about the shifting financial landscape, I send them here. These aren’t random links; they’re home bases for reliable commentary, data and deep thinking. Each entry has a clear value proposition and a working link so you’re never sent to a dead page. What are your favorite resources? Share them with us!

I. Macro & Global Markets

These resources anchor your understanding of economic regimes, policy shifts and cross‑asset dynamics.

• Yardeni Research – QuickTakes & Market Notes → Concise macro analysis. Yardeni’s QuickTakes distil the key variables driving the global economy into short‑form takes on current market events.
  https://yardeni.com/quicktakes/
• BlackRock Investment Institute → Structural trend insights. BII tracks “mega forces” like the rise of artificial intelligence and other structural shifts that are reshaping economies, offering weekly commentary and investment calls.
  https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/weekly-commentary
• Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) → Data‑driven, cross‑asset research. GIR provides original, fundamental insights across equities, fixed income, currency and commodities markets; its breadth and depth are underpinned by rigorous analysis. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research
• Bridgewater – Research & Insights → Macro frameworks from the world’s largest hedge fund. Bridgewater’s analysts contextualise the “new geopolitical and macroeconomic paradigm” and share the unique insights that drive their investment engine.
  https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights
• J.P. Morgan – Guide to the Markets → A visual toolbox. These quarterly slides package global economic and market data into intuitive charts for investment committees and client conversations.
  https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/
• IMF – World Economic Outlook → Comprehensive forecasts. Twice a year the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reports provide estimates and projections for global output growth, inflation and other macro variables for nearly every country investopedia.com.
  https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

II. AI, Autonomy & the Agent Economy

Learn how artificial intelligence, agents and automation are intersecting with capital markets and business models.

• McKinsey Global Institute → Deep dives on AI & productivity. MGI’s reports quantify the economic impact of generative AI and forecast how automation could add trillions to global GDP.
• OpenAI & Anthropic → Front‑line AI research. These labs publish cutting‑edge papers on language models, safety and new capabilities that will inform how agents interact with financial systems.
  https://openai.com/research/
  https://www.anthropic.com/research
• a16z – AI & The Agent Economy → Visionary perspective on the AI era. Andreessen Horowitz frames AI as a transformational platform whose opportunities are profound and far‑reaching and explores how agents will reshape fintech and investing.
  https://a16z.com/ai/
• MIT CSAIL → Pioneering computing research. MIT’s Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory pursues research that improves the way people work, play and learn.
  https://csail.mit.edu/
• MIT Digital Currency Initiative → Cryptography & digital money. The DCI works to decentralise trust and empower individuals through cryptographic peer‑to‑peer exchange—essential reading for understanding digital money rails.
  https://dci.mit.edu/
• Microsoft Research & Google DeepMind → Fundamental AI research. Microsoft Research advances science and technology to benefit humanity, while DeepMind’s mission is to build AI responsibly to benefit humanity.
  https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/
  https://deepmind.google/

III. Digital Money & Stablecoins

Follow the plumbing that lets money move at code speed.

• Circle (USDC) – Transparency Reports → Fully backed digital dollars. Circle discloses that USDC and EURC are fully backed by highly liquid fiat reserves, provides weekly breakdowns and publishes third‑party assurance that reserves exceed tokens in circulation.
  https://www.circle.com/en/transparency
• Tether (USDT) – Transparency & Reserves → Largest dollar stablecoin. Tether emphasises that each token is pegged 1‑to‑1 with a matching fiat currency and backed 100% by reserves.
  https://tether.to/en/transparency/
• Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – Stablecoin Research → Independent policy research. A BIS working paper notes that stablecoins’ assets under management topped $200 billion in early 2025 and that flows into and out of stablecoins affect short‑term Treasury yields.
  https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2025e3.htm
• U.S. GENIUS Act (White House Fact Sheet) → Stablecoin regulation explained. The GENIUS Act created a federal framework requiring stablecoins to be 100% reserve‑backed with liquid assets, mandated monthly public disclosures and prioritised consumer protection: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-signs-genius-act-into-law/
• Chainalysis – Crypto Market Reports → On‑chain data & compliance. Provides market intelligence and compliance tools for monitoring stablecoin adoption and usage: https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/2025-global-crypto-adoption-index/

IV. Tokenisation & Digital Market Infrastructure

Explore how traditional assets are being represented on blockchains and what that means for liquidity and settlement.

• BlackRock – Digital Assets & BUIDL Fund → Institutional tokenised products. BlackRock’s BUIDL Fund and digital asset hub show how tokenisation can modernise cash management and access to Treasuries.
  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-14/blackrock-fund-offered-on-binance-marks-shift-in-crypto-plumbing
• J.P. Morgan Onyx → Blockchain settlement network. Onyx runs live blockchain-based settlement systems for repo and other wholesale markets, pointing toward a future of instant cross‑border settlement.
  https://www.jpmorgan.com/onyx
• Franklin Templeton → Tokenised money market funds. Franklin Templeton offers an on‑chain U.S. government money fund, demonstrating how regulated funds can operate on public blockchains.
  https://www.temit.co.uk/emerging-market-economies?utm_id=CMP-06789-F0Q3Z&gclsrc=aw.ds&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=1498936011&gbraid=0AAAAAC9Yv8AmnWwkWsjF34_NR4xXGiYQl&gclid=Cj0KCQiAubrJBhCbARIsAHIdxD9IuFDRQbSIgNgR6RTzhlhPp3JSWhZxR6mkPAka8gXkyywjmmwlxJcaAm3aEALw_wcB
• WisdomTree Digital & DTCC / Euroclear → Ecosystem infrastructure. WisdomTree provides tokenised ETFs and digital funds; DTCC and Euroclear share insights from their digital asset pilots, illustrating how market infrastructure is preparing for tokenisation.
  https://www.wisdomtree.com/insights
  https://www.dtcc.com/insights/topics/digital-assets
  https://www.euroclear.com/insights/digital.html

V. Sustainable Finance & Transition Capital

Resources for integrating climate and nature into investment decisions.

• BloombergNEF → Energy transition intelligence. BNEF is a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets and the disruptive technologies driving the transition to a low‑carbon economy assets.bbhub.io.
  https://about.bnef.com/
• International Energy Agency (IEA) → Policy‑aligned energy data. The IEA works with governments and industry to shape a secure and sustainable energy future for alliea.org, producing reports like the Net Zero Roadmap and World Energy Outlook.
  https://www.iea.org/reports
• PRI & NatureFinance & TNFD → Nature & climate frameworks. The Principles for Responsible Investment promote responsible investing; NatureFinance focuses on building markets that value nature; the Taskforce on Nature‑related Financial Disclosures provides a framework for reporting nature‑related risks and opportunities.
  https://www.unpri.org/
  https://www.naturefinance.global/
  https://tnfd.global/
• McKinsey Sustainability Insights → Sector‑specific transition pathways. McKinsey analyses the economics of decarbonisation and offers tailored pathways for sectors and regions.
  https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights

VI. Governance, Risk & Treasury

Guidance for operational resilience, long‑term thinking and risk management in a digitised financial system.

• PwC & EY – Asset & Wealth Management Insights → Industry outlooks. These firms’ research hubs provide reports on regulatory changes, cost pressures and operating model transformation in the asset and wealth management industry.
  https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/asset-and-wealth-management.html
  https://www.ey.com/en_gl/asset-wealth-management
• FCLTGlobal → Long‑term capital allocation. FCLTGlobal’s research promotes long‑term governance, board equity ownership and explores issues like AI workforce transitionsfcltglobal.org.
  https://www.fcltglobal.org/research/
• Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – Risk Management & TMMFs → Tokenised money market fund research. A BIS Bulletin finds that tokenised money market funds provide yield‑bearing alternatives to stablecoins but introduce liquidity mismatch risks and require regulatory oversightbis.org.
  https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull115.htm
• CFA Institute → Governance & fiduciary standards. The CFA Institute publishes research on systemic risk, ethics and best practices for investment management.
  https://www.cfainstitute.org/en/research
• U.S. Treasury → Stablecoin & digital asset policy. The Treasury’s digital assets hub covers regulatory developments, including guidance on stablecoins and digital dollars.
  https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-markets-financial-institutions-and-fiscal-service/stablecoins-and-digital-assets

VII. Geopolitics & Systemic Risk

Understanding the world behind the numbers.

• Council on Foreign Relations – Global Conflict Tracker → Interactive map of conflicts. This tool offers context on ongoing conflicts and their implications for global stability.
  https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker
• CSIS & Chatham House → Strategic & governance analysis. CSIS provides research on geopolitical hot spots and emerging technologies; Chatham House offers policy‑oriented analysis on global governance and multi‑polar dynamics.
  https://www.csis.org/analysis
  https://www.chathamhouse.org/research
• Financial Times – Alphaville & World Coverage → Sharp market and policy commentary. FT Alphaville covers financial markets with wit and depth, while FT’s global sections provide in‑depth reporting on geopolitics and macro regimes.
  https://www.ft.com/alphaville
  https://www.ft.com/world

What to Do With This Map

Use this list as a curated signal amid the noise. Whether you’re a macro geek, a tech founder, an investor or simply curious, these resources will keep you tethered to reality while the world hurtles toward a programmable, AI‑native financial system.